Pre-owned business jet inventory has fallen to 4% of the global fleet. That figure, from Jefferies and AMSTAT as of March 2026, should be on every buyer's radar right now. The benchmark for a balanced market is 10%. We're less than half of that.
And it's about to get worse before it gets better.
How we got here
The supply crunch has two engines. The first is OEM backlog. Gulfstream and Bombardier order books now stretch to 2029. A buyer who wants a factory-new large-cabin jet and doesn't want to wait three years lands straight in the pre-owned pool - with everyone else who had the same idea.
The second engine is seller restraint. In 2025, International Aircraft Dealers Association members recorded 807 exclusive sell-side retainer agreements, down from 1,176 in 2024. Owners who can afford to hold are holding. Those who do sell are moving fast: dealers closed transactions in an average of 155 days last year, versus the 192-day industry average. Good aircraft don't sit.
The result: inventory down 12% over the past twelve months. Average asking price up 7%. For large-cabin jets under seven years old — the segment most buyers actually want — availability dropped 36% year-over-year.
Transaction volume tells a different story
Despite the inventory squeeze, deals are happening. IADA members reported 1,630 closed aircraft transactions in 2025 - the fourth consecutive annual increase, up from 1,559 in 2024 and 1,399 in 2022. Q4 2025 alone saw 647 closings, versus 562 in Q4 2024. New acquisition agreements in Q4 were up 33% year-over-year.
What this means: buyers are active, but the pool is thin. The difference between closing and not closing a deal in 2026 is increasingly a function of network depth - who you call, how fast you move, whether your team can execute a pre-purchase inspection at capacity-constrained MRO facilities in Savannah or Wichita.
Fewer aircraft were discounted in 2025 than at any point since 2022. Sellers are not under pressure. Buyers are.
The tariff variable
New aircraft pricing was already elevated. Tariff policy is now adding another layer of uncertainty. The Trump administration's broad import duties - including a 10% levy on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act - complicate an industry built on globally integrated supply chains. Boeing and Bombardier both source components across multiple countries. Those cost increases land on buyers in the form of list price adjustments.
Aviation Week reported in January that OEMs have absorbed some tariff impact so far, but warned that any passed-through costs would show up in 2026 annual price increases. Embraer is currently benefiting from tariff exemptions, creating a pricing advantage over Bombardier and Dassault that could shift ordering patterns in the midsize and large-cabin segments.
For non-US buyers, the math is different but not simpler. The EU is weighing retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft if the 10% US tariff on EU-manufactured parts persists. Trade policy volatility - not just the tariff levels themselves - is the core problem. Manufacturers negotiate parts contracts years in advance. They cannot hedge sudden policy changes. That uncertainty travels down the supply chain to the buyer's purchase agreement.
What this means for MENA buyers specifically
MENA-based buyers are largely insulated from US bonus depreciation cycles, which is the primary driver of the Q4 surge in US domestic transactions. But they are not insulated from inventory scarcity or pricing pressure.
The same shortage that's pushing US buyers into the pre-owned market affects the global pool. A buyer in Dubai looking for a Gulfstream G650 under five years old is competing for the same 36%-smaller inventory as everyone else. The geographic advantage MENA buyers once had (access to Middle Eastern-registered aircraft often overlooked by North American brokers) is narrowing as international search has become standard.
The window for acquiring quality pre-owned assets at current pricing is not indefinite. If OEM list prices increase in 2026 due to tariff pass-through, the implied floor for late-model pre-owned aircraft moves up with them.
The acquisition strategy implication
Three things follow from all of this.
First: the pre-purchase inspection window matters more now than it did two years ago. MRO facilities are running at capacity. Scheduling a thorough PPI on a competitive asset requires runway - and buyers who show up unprepared lose the deal.
Second: sell-side retainer data is a leading indicator. When the number of sellers willing to commit exclusively to a broker drops 31% in a year, it means owners expect the market to move in their favor. That's a signal worth taking seriously.
Third: the tariff environment makes the new-aircraft calculation murkier, not clearer. For a buyer weighing a new order against a pre-owned acquisition, the pricing equation for a factory-new jet is genuinely uncertain. Pre-owned, despite elevated prices, offers delivery certainty that no OEM can match right now.
The 4% inventory figure is not a headline. It's a constraint that shapes every acquisition decision made in this market.
